Tax Hikes & Regulatory Pressure: What the Autumn Budget Could Mean for Gaming Businesses
As the Autumn Budget approaches, gaming operators are preparing for what may be one of the most challenging fiscal and regulatory moments in recent years. With the Treasury under pressure to raise revenue quickly, gambling duties appear firmly in the Government’s sights. At the same time, the sector is already deep into the implementation phase of the Gambling Act white paper reforms.
For many businesses, the question isn’t whether pressures are coming — it’s how to adapt early enough to remain resilient.
What we’re expecting from the Autumn Budget
While nothing is final until the Chancellor steps up at the despatch box, the direction of travel is relatively clear:
Increases to Remote Gaming Duty (RGD)
Remote Gaming Duty currently sits at 21%. A rate rise here would have a direct and immediate impact on gross gaming yield, particularly for online-first operators already grappling with reduced customer spend due to affordability checks and stake limits.
Possible increases to Machine Gaming Duty (MGD)
Retail, bingo, casinos and machine-led venues remain under pressure, and a higher MGD rate could push many sites from marginal to unsustainable.
A dual squeeze on yield and taxation
This combination — reduced player spend and increased taxation — is what many operators fear most. The Budget may confirm that this is no longer hypothetical.
Even before any tax rises, gaming businesses are adapting to a wave of ongoing reforms:
Online slot stake limits (£5 for adults, £2 for 18–24s);
Financial vulnerability and enhanced affordability checks;
A new statutory levy;
Updated LCCP requirements and technical standards; and
More data reporting, monitoring and safer gambling obligations.
These are major operational shifts that require investment, new tools, new governance structures and, in many cases, a cultural shift in how compliance is integrated into the commercial strategy.
For many operators, compliance spend is now one of the fastest-growing overheads.
What this means for operators — in practical terms
1. Margin compression becomes structural
A higher duty rate is not a “cost to absorb”; it reshapes the economics of entire products and verticals. This will force some businesses to make strategic calls about where to focus — and where to reduce exposure.
2. Investment decisions will tighten
Higher tax plus rising compliance costs often leads to deferred or scaled-back investment in tech, new products, safer gambling initiatives or UK expansion. Smaller licence holders will be particularly exposed in this respect.
3. Product and pricing strategies may need rebalancing
Operators may reconsider bonusing, VIP value propositions, or the viability of delivering certain niche products when margins shrink.
4. Market consolidation will accelerate
We expect a continued increase in mergers, acquisitions and strategic exits. Businesses with strong compliance foundations will be better placed for long-term partnerships or sale.
Steps gaming businesses should take now
This is where operators can get ahead:
Model different duty scenarios
Don’t wait for the Budget. Model the impact of +2%, +5% or +10% duty increases on each product line and identify high-risk areas early.
Strengthen your governance and board awareness
Senior leadership should have a clear, documented understanding of financial risk, regulatory exposure and the combined effect of tax changes alongside white paper reforms.
Review operational efficiency
Identify where automation or outsourcing could reduce the workload created by affordability checks and reporting requirements.
Reassess your product mix
Some verticals may remain viable; others may not. Decisions made now will protect long-term sustainability.
Engage in the policy process
This period of change is also a period of influence. Submissions to consultations, sector working groups and trade bodies genuinely make a difference – so get involved!
Looking ahead
The Autumn Budget is unlikely to deliver good news for gaming operators. But with clarity, planning and proactive risk management, businesses can not only endure the current pressures but position themselves favourably for the future.
If you would like tailored modelling, a regulatory strategy review, or guidance on preparing your business for the Budget and the next phase of white paper implementation, contact our team via the form.
This article is intended for information purposes only and provides a general overview of the relevant legal topic. It does not constitute legal advice and should not be relied upon as such. While we strive for accuracy, the law is subject to change, and we cannot guarantee that the information is current or applicable to specific circumstances. Costigan King accepts no liability for any reliance placed on this material. For further details concerning the subject of the article or for specific advice, please contact a member of our team.
Arianne King
Gaming Specialist
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